Argentina to dollarize its economy

The increase in the Kalshi prediction market from $0.21 to $0.31 for the likelihood of Argentina dollarizing its economy by December 31, 2025, likely reflects heightened economic concerns following several key developments in Argentina. Most notably, the country's inflation rate surged to an alarming 12.4% in August 2024, the highest monthly rate in over three decades. This spike followed a major devaluation of the Argentine peso, exacerbating economic instability and making alternatives like dollarization appear more appealing to investors and the public alike​.

Additionally, political developments likely played a significant role in this shift. Javier Milei, a prominent libertarian candidate who supports dollarization, has gained traction as Argentina's economic challenges deepen. Milei's proposals to abolish the central bank and fully adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina's currency are being seen as increasingly viable solutions to the country's persistent inflation and monetary mismanagement​. These economic and political dynamics combined to drive the market's reassessment of the likelihood of dollarization.

Kamala Harris likelihood to win presidential election

The increase in prediction market price from $0.43 to $0.52 between August 1 and August 13, 2024 for whether Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, likely reflects several key developments. Most notably, Harris officially secured the Democratic nomination on August 5, marking a significant milestone in her campaign. This formal recognition solidified her status as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer, which likely bolstered confidence among her supporters and speculators in the prediction markets. Additionally, the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate on August 6 may have also played a role. Walz is viewed as a strategic choice capable of appealing to both the progressive base and moderate voters, potentially improving Harris's electoral prospects.

Moreover, Harris's recent campaigning efforts, particularly in battleground states, have shown positive momentum. A new poll released on August 10 indicated that Harris had taken the lead in key "Blue Wall" states, which are crucial for winning the Electoral College. This polling data, combined with the ongoing support from the Democratic establishment and her focus on uniting the party, may have driven increased confidence in her chances of winning the election, thus contributing to the rise in her prediction market price.

Josh Shapiro - Democratic VP Nominee

The Polymarket prediction for whether Josh Shapiro will get selected as the Democratic vice presidential nominee decreased from $0.73 to $0.60 between August 2 and August 5, 2024. This can be linked to several key events that likely influenced public perception and market confidence. One notable factor was the resurfacing of past scandals involving Shapiro's tenure as Pennsylvania governor. On August 2, allegations emerged that Shapiro had previously mishandled sexual harassment complaints against a top aide, which raised concerns about his leadership and integrity. This controversy gained traction, leading to criticism from women's advocacy groups, which likely diminished his appeal as a vice-presidential candidate​​.

Another significant event was the public debate over Shapiro's strong pro-Israel stance. As speculation about his vice-presidential prospects grew, so did the backlash from pro-Palestinian activists, who criticized his outspoken support for Israel. This controversy added a layer of complexity to his candidacy, potentially alienating some voters and stakeholders within the Democratic Party. Additionally, reports indicated that while Shapiro was actively involved in campaign events and fundraising, he remained non-committal and evasive when questioned about his vice-presidential aspirations, which may have created uncertainty about his viability as a candidate​.

Winner of the popular vote for US elections in November

The Polymarket prediction for whether Kamala Harris wins the popular vote significantly increased from $0.48 to $0.67 between July 23 and August 5, 2024. This can be attributed to a series of strategic and impactful events. On July 23, Kamala Harris officially launched her presidential campaign with a rally in Wisconsin, where she emphasized themes of freedom, voting rights, and gun safety. Her powerful speeches resonated with many voters and helped to solidify her position as a strong contender against Donald Trump. This period also saw her gaining critical endorsements from key Democratic leaders and robust fundraising efforts, which bolstered her campaign's visibility and credibility​​.

Additionally, Harris’s performance in the polls contributed to the increased market confidence. During this time, several polls showed Harris either leading or closely trailing Trump in key battleground states. This positive polling data, combined with Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw from a scheduled debate with Harris and his subsequent derogatory remarks, may have further swayed public opinion in her favor. The combination of strategic campaigning, strong endorsements, effective fundraising, and favorable polling likely drove the significant rise in Harris's prediction market value​​.

Queer for Best Picture at the Oscars?

Between July 20 and July 29, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Queer will be nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards saw an increase from $0.34 to $0.48. This surge can be attributed to a series of favorable reviews and heightened buzz around the film following its premiere at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival. Critics praised "Queer" for its groundbreaking storytelling and powerful performances, highlighting its potential as a strong contender for the Oscars. The film's success at Sundance, coupled with its increasing visibility and positive critical reception, likely contributed to the increased confidence in its chances for a Best Picture nomination​.

Additionally, the film's strategic release on popular streaming platforms in July played a crucial role in expanding its audience and generating further acclaim. As more viewers and industry professionals watched "Queer," discussions about its Oscar potential intensified. This increased visibility and word-of-mouth praise bolstered market confidence in its likelihood of receiving a nomination, reflecting the general sentiment that the film was gaining significant traction in the awards circuit​.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson the next James Bond?

Between July 27 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market for Aaron Taylor-Johnson being announced as the next James Bond saw a significant increase from $0.37 to $0.65. This surge was largely driven by Pierce Brosnan's public endorsement of Taylor-Johnson for the role. Brosnan, a former Bond actor himself, praised Taylor-Johnson's talent and charisma, bolstering market confidence in his candidacy. Brosnan's comments, made on RTÉ Radio 1, lent substantial credibility to the rumors, given his firsthand experience working with Taylor-Johnson and his iconic status within the franchise​​.

Additionally, there were strong indications from industry insiders that Taylor-Johnson had already been offered the role, with reports suggesting he was expected to accept the offer imminently. This added another layer of speculation and anticipation among fans and market participants. The combination of Brosnan's endorsement and the behind-the-scenes movements within the franchise likely played crucial roles in the sharp rise of Taylor-Johnson's probability of becoming the next James Bond​.

Chances of a Republican sweep decrease as Kamala Harris named new Democratic presidential nominee

Between July 21 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market saw a notable decline in the probability of the Republican Party winning the Presidency and both houses of Congress, dropping from $0.41 to $0.33. A key event driving this shift was President Joe Biden's announcement on July 21 that he would not seek re-election, citing age-related concerns after a poor debate performance. This decision boosted Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner, potentially unifying Democratic support and affecting the Republican prospects​ .

Additionally, during this period, polling data revealed that Harris was performing competitively against former President Donald Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee. For instance, a Forbes/HarrisX poll from late July showed Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 51% to 49%, indicating a tight race that could influence market perceptions of the overall Republican chances. These developments likely contributed to the decreased confidence in a Republican sweep in the 2024 elections​.

Failure in SpaceX Falcon 9 launch impacts ambitious targets

The Kalshi prediction market for SpaceX having more than 120 launches in 2024 saw a significant price drop from $0.89 to $0.67 between July 11 and July 16, 2024. This decline can be attributed to a recent failure during a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch. On July 11, SpaceX attempted to launch 20 Starlink satellites, but the mission encountered a critical issue when the Falcon 9's second stage failed, leaving the satellites in a lower-than-intended orbit. This failure marked SpaceX's first in-flight mishap with the Falcon 9 since 2015, raising concerns about the reliability of their launch schedule for the remainder of the year​​.

Additionally, this failure might have implications for upcoming SpaceX missions, potentially causing delays and affecting their ambitious launch targets. The setback with the Starlink satellites, particularly those with direct-to-cell capabilities, not only impacts the specific mission but also raises broader concerns about the potential for future technical issues. This incident, combined with the need to investigate and rectify the cause of the failure, could disrupt SpaceX's aggressive launch schedule, contributing to the market's decreased confidence in SpaceX achieving more than 120 launches in 2024​​.

Confidence in China bagging the most gold medals in Olympics decreases

The decrease in the Polymarket prediction market price for China winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics from $0.34 to $0.22 can be attributed to several key developments. One significant factor is the reduction in the total number of gold medals available at Paris 2024 compared to the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which potentially impacts China's medal prospects. Additionally, changes in the athlete lineup have raised concerns about China's ability to dominate in certain events, despite the rigorous preparations undertaken by the national teams.

Another critical event is the heightened expectations and favorable odds for Team USA. Betting markets overwhelmingly favor the United States to win the most gold medals, with an implied probability of 89.5% compared to China's 20%. This is compounded by recent doping scandals affecting Chinese athletes, notably in swimming, which have cast a shadow over China's preparations and could impact their performance in the pool—a significant contributor to their medal tally. These factors collectively contribute to the market's reduced confidence in China outpacing other nations in the gold medal count.

Netflix mass layoff by the end of the year

Between July 1 and July 9, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Netflix will have a layoff event involving at least 100 persons by December 31, 2024, saw a decrease from $0.68 to $0.62. A significant factor contributing to this shift was the announcement that Netflix planned a small-scale layoff, affecting only 15 people. The company is undergoing a restructuring of its film department following the recent change in leadership with Dan Lin replacing former studio chief Scott Stuber. This minor layoff, rather than a larger-scale event, likely reassured investors, resulting in the market's decreased confidence in a more extensive layoff happening within the year​​.

Additionally, Netflix's broader business context remains positive, which may have further influenced the market's outlook. Despite the minor layoffs, Netflix's stock performance has been strong, with shares up by 60% over the past six months. The company's focus on growth areas such as advertising and gaming, which were highlighted in their 2023 shareholder letter, suggests that Netflix is strategically positioning itself for future expansion. These factors combined likely led investors to reassess the likelihood of a significant layoff event, contributing to the observed decrease in the market price.​

Gladiator 2 for Oscar Best Picture nomination

The significant increase in the Kalshi prediction market for "If Gladiator 2 has been nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards" from $0.25 to $0.43 between July 1 and July 9, 2024, can likely be attributed to several pivotal developments. On July 1, the first official look at "Gladiator II" was released, showcasing a star-studded cast including Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, and Connie Nielsen. This unveiling generated considerable excitement and optimism about the film’s potential, given the pedigree of the actors involved and the return of Ridley Scott as the director. The images and details about the plot, which centers on Lucius, the son of Lucilla, transitioning from a peaceful life in Northern Africa to becoming a gladiator, were well-received and suggested a strong narrative that could resonate with audiences and critics alike​​.

Furthermore, discussions about the film’s potential for major award nominations gained momentum. Industry analysts and film enthusiasts began speculating on its chances at the Oscars, bolstered by the high-profile involvement of Ridley Scott and the ensemble cast. The narrative's depth, focusing on themes of survival, power struggles, and familial connections, along with the anticipation surrounding its November release, contributed to a more favorable outlook on its awards prospects. These factors combined to drive a notable increase in confidence within the prediction market regarding the film’s likelihood of securing a Best Picture nomination at the upcoming Academy Awards​​.

Elon Musk - richest man in the world at the end of the year?

From June 28 to July 8, 2024, several key events likely influenced the increase in the Kalshi prediction market regarding whether Elon Musk would be the wealthiest person in the world on December 31, 2024. Notably, Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate Musk's $56 billion compensation package, which had previously been struck down by the Delaware Chancery Court. The vote not only boosted investor confidence but also led to a significant rise in Tesla's stock price, increasing by nearly 10% over two days​​. This development underscored Musk's pivotal role in Tesla's future and likely contributed to a perception of increased personal wealth.

Additionally, SpaceX secured a major contract from NASA to develop a deorbit vehicle for the International Space Station, enhancing the company's long-term prospects and financial stability​​. The announcement followed closely on the heels of successful test flights and partnerships, bolstering confidence in SpaceX's valuation and future revenue streams. The combined impact of these events likely contributed to the increased market sentiment that Musk's wealth would continue to grow, driving the market price from $0.48 to $0.70​​.

Profit opportunity in election markets on Polymarket

When you're participating in election markets it's really important to read the full rules that define a market before buying any contracts. I was reminded of that while evaluating Kalshi's market for "How many Trump-Biden debates this year?" The market for "1 debate" is currently at $0.28 for yes, $0.77 for no. That seems like an easy 'yes' bet. They've had 1 already, Biden is 50/50 to not even remain on the ticket, and if he does remain on it, an argument can be made that additional debates aren't really in either candidate's best interest (Biden because he might be embarrassed again, Trump because he wants people to remember Biden's first debate against him). Then I ready the rules. It turns out that this market is actually on total number of presidential debates between the Republican candidate and Democratic candidate. No mention of Trump or Biden specifically. So it's lot easier to see a scenario where Biden gets replaced on the ticket, and Trump debates Biden's replacement. While some people may argue that at that point, Biden is no longer the democratic candidate, and therefore the first debate shouldn't count towards the total, I assume that the market will be resolved with that debate counting, greatly increasing the chance of there being at least two debates.