Kamala Harris likelihood to win presidential election

The increase in prediction market price from $0.43 to $0.52 between August 1 and August 13, 2024 for whether Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, likely reflects several key developments. Most notably, Harris officially secured the Democratic nomination on August 5, marking a significant milestone in her campaign. This formal recognition solidified her status as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer, which likely bolstered confidence among her supporters and speculators in the prediction markets. Additionally, the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate on August 6 may have also played a role. Walz is viewed as a strategic choice capable of appealing to both the progressive base and moderate voters, potentially improving Harris's electoral prospects.

Moreover, Harris's recent campaigning efforts, particularly in battleground states, have shown positive momentum. A new poll released on August 10 indicated that Harris had taken the lead in key "Blue Wall" states, which are crucial for winning the Electoral College. This polling data, combined with the ongoing support from the Democratic establishment and her focus on uniting the party, may have driven increased confidence in her chances of winning the election, thus contributing to the rise in her prediction market price.

Josh Shapiro - Democratic VP Nominee

The Polymarket prediction for whether Josh Shapiro will get selected as the Democratic vice presidential nominee decreased from $0.73 to $0.60 between August 2 and August 5, 2024. This can be linked to several key events that likely influenced public perception and market confidence. One notable factor was the resurfacing of past scandals involving Shapiro's tenure as Pennsylvania governor. On August 2, allegations emerged that Shapiro had previously mishandled sexual harassment complaints against a top aide, which raised concerns about his leadership and integrity. This controversy gained traction, leading to criticism from women's advocacy groups, which likely diminished his appeal as a vice-presidential candidate​​.

Another significant event was the public debate over Shapiro's strong pro-Israel stance. As speculation about his vice-presidential prospects grew, so did the backlash from pro-Palestinian activists, who criticized his outspoken support for Israel. This controversy added a layer of complexity to his candidacy, potentially alienating some voters and stakeholders within the Democratic Party. Additionally, reports indicated that while Shapiro was actively involved in campaign events and fundraising, he remained non-committal and evasive when questioned about his vice-presidential aspirations, which may have created uncertainty about his viability as a candidate​.

Winner of the popular vote for US elections in November

The Polymarket prediction for whether Kamala Harris wins the popular vote significantly increased from $0.48 to $0.67 between July 23 and August 5, 2024. This can be attributed to a series of strategic and impactful events. On July 23, Kamala Harris officially launched her presidential campaign with a rally in Wisconsin, where she emphasized themes of freedom, voting rights, and gun safety. Her powerful speeches resonated with many voters and helped to solidify her position as a strong contender against Donald Trump. This period also saw her gaining critical endorsements from key Democratic leaders and robust fundraising efforts, which bolstered her campaign's visibility and credibility​​.

Additionally, Harris’s performance in the polls contributed to the increased market confidence. During this time, several polls showed Harris either leading or closely trailing Trump in key battleground states. This positive polling data, combined with Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw from a scheduled debate with Harris and his subsequent derogatory remarks, may have further swayed public opinion in her favor. The combination of strategic campaigning, strong endorsements, effective fundraising, and favorable polling likely drove the significant rise in Harris's prediction market value​​.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson the next James Bond?

Between July 27 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market for Aaron Taylor-Johnson being announced as the next James Bond saw a significant increase from $0.37 to $0.65. This surge was largely driven by Pierce Brosnan's public endorsement of Taylor-Johnson for the role. Brosnan, a former Bond actor himself, praised Taylor-Johnson's talent and charisma, bolstering market confidence in his candidacy. Brosnan's comments, made on RTÉ Radio 1, lent substantial credibility to the rumors, given his firsthand experience working with Taylor-Johnson and his iconic status within the franchise​​.

Additionally, there were strong indications from industry insiders that Taylor-Johnson had already been offered the role, with reports suggesting he was expected to accept the offer imminently. This added another layer of speculation and anticipation among fans and market participants. The combination of Brosnan's endorsement and the behind-the-scenes movements within the franchise likely played crucial roles in the sharp rise of Taylor-Johnson's probability of becoming the next James Bond​.

Chances of a Republican sweep decrease as Kamala Harris named new Democratic presidential nominee

Between July 21 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market saw a notable decline in the probability of the Republican Party winning the Presidency and both houses of Congress, dropping from $0.41 to $0.33. A key event driving this shift was President Joe Biden's announcement on July 21 that he would not seek re-election, citing age-related concerns after a poor debate performance. This decision boosted Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner, potentially unifying Democratic support and affecting the Republican prospects​ .

Additionally, during this period, polling data revealed that Harris was performing competitively against former President Donald Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee. For instance, a Forbes/HarrisX poll from late July showed Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 51% to 49%, indicating a tight race that could influence market perceptions of the overall Republican chances. These developments likely contributed to the decreased confidence in a Republican sweep in the 2024 elections​.

Confidence in China bagging the most gold medals in Olympics decreases

The decrease in the Polymarket prediction market price for China winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics from $0.34 to $0.22 can be attributed to several key developments. One significant factor is the reduction in the total number of gold medals available at Paris 2024 compared to the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which potentially impacts China's medal prospects. Additionally, changes in the athlete lineup have raised concerns about China's ability to dominate in certain events, despite the rigorous preparations undertaken by the national teams.

Another critical event is the heightened expectations and favorable odds for Team USA. Betting markets overwhelmingly favor the United States to win the most gold medals, with an implied probability of 89.5% compared to China's 20%. This is compounded by recent doping scandals affecting Chinese athletes, notably in swimming, which have cast a shadow over China's preparations and could impact their performance in the pool—a significant contributor to their medal tally. These factors collectively contribute to the market's reduced confidence in China outpacing other nations in the gold medal count.

Polymarket breaks the $100m threshold in June

In June, Polymarket became the first prediction market to exceed $100m of trading volume in a calendar month. Not only that, but on the day of the US Presidential debate, a massive $8m of contracts were traded. I would imagine that this is just a taste of things to come, with even higher trading volume likely as the election approaches.

How to evaluate arbitrage opportunities in the 2024 US Presidential Election Markets

In the aftermath of Joe Biden's debate debacle, there's been several days of furious activity in Polymarket's election markets. Most notably, the price of contracts in a Biden win have dropped from $0.34 to a current (as of June 30th) new low of $0.18, while the price of a Donald Trump win have gone from $0.56 to $0.65. In addition, the markets for Biden withdrawing from the election, which had been as low as $0.13 on April 30 and had never previously gone above $0.30 are nearing 50/50 ($0.47 as I write this). With a variety of breaking news stories that could cause rapid price movements in these markets, and a lot of strong opinions that could lead to market participants letting emotion guide their trades, these markets are ripe for arbitrage opportunities. I'll try to write about more of these in the near future, but for now I'll focus on the broadest one. Are the election winner markets and the market for Biden withdrawing from the election telling us the same thing? Since this is subject to change at any time, rather than simply telling you the current answer to that question, I'm going to provide a simple formula for how to answer this question. By multiplying the implied chance of Biden winning the election by the implied chance of Biden NOT dropping out, we can calculate the 'chance that Biden wins if remains in the election'. This should be very close to the inverse of the chance that Trump will win the election (maybe slightly lower, since there's also some chance that Trump would drop out or theoretically that RFK somehow pulls a huge upset and wins a three person race). Here's the current math... Trump to win: 65% Biden to drop out: 47% Biden NOT to drop out: 53% (100% - 47%) Biden to win: 18% Biden to win if he doesn't drop out: 34% (18%/53%) Since 34% is very slightly less than the inverse of Trump's 65%, we can see that these markets are consistent with each other, and don't point to any arbitrage opportunities. Now imagine a scenario where everything else stays the same, but the 'Biden to win' market briefly rebounds to 30%. The revised math would look like this: Trump to win: 65% Biden to drop out: 47% Biden NOT to drop out: 53% (100% - 47%) Biden to win: 25% Biden to win if he doesn't drop out: 47% (25%/53%) Since 47% if much higher than the inverse of Trump's 65%, we'd have a situation where one of the markets must be very, very wrong. One could potentially set up profitable arbitrage trades by taking the 'no' side of Biden to win and either the yes side of Trump to win or the no side of Biden to drop out.

Polymarket shows sharp increase in odds of Biden dropping out of presidential race

The notable increase in the Polymarket prediction market from $0.19 to $0.43 for President Joe Biden officially withdrawing from the 2024 US presidential race likely reflects several key developments, including impressions from the recent presidential debate. Held the night before on June 27, 2024, the debate featured intense scrutiny of Biden's performance and policies, with commentators noting moments where Biden appeared less energetic or assertive compared to his opponents. These observations further fueled speculation about Biden's ability to sustain a competitive campaign, especially as concerns about his health and stamina had already been circulating in the media.

Polymarket Contracts for Bitcoin Reaching $75K in June Drop Sharply

The decline in the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in June from $0.66 to $0.52 on June 7, 2024, can likely be attributed to two major events impacting market sentiment. First, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a comprehensive review of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), raising concerns over regulatory hurdles and potential delays in approvals. This move by the SEC injected uncertainty into the market, as ETFs are seen as a key vehicle for institutional investment in Bitcoin, and any regulatory impediments could dampen investor confidence. Additionally, the market reacted to broader economic concerns following comments from the Federal Reserve indicating the possibility of further interest rate hikes to combat inflation. This hawkish stance from the Fed often leads to reduced risk appetite among investors, prompting them to move away from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. The combination of regulatory uncertainty and tightening monetary policy likely contributed significantly to the shift in market sentiment, resulting in the notable decrease in the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin.

Polymarket Market For Q3 Ethereum High Continues Rise

From May 19th to June 5th, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market for whether Ethereum would surpass $4,891.70 between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024, saw significant movement, increasing from $0.14 to $0.38. This shift can be largely attributed to several key developments in the cryptocurrency space. One of the most influential events was the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23, 2024. This approval spurred a wave of optimism and significant buying activity, with Ethereum whales investing approximately $2 billion in the days following the announcement. This influx of capital drove Ethereum's price above $3,850, reinforcing bullish sentiment and contributing to the upward movement in the prediction market. Additionally, Ethereum's price gains were supported by a favorable court ruling on May 15, 2024, which bolstered investor confidence by affirming the decentralized nature of the Ethereum network. This ruling came after the U.S. Department of Justice indicted individuals for wire fraud involving the manipulation of the Ethereum blockchain, emphasizing Ethereum's robust security and decentralized framework. These events, combined with growing anticipation of institutional inflows into the newly approved Ethereum ETFs, significantly enhanced market sentiment, driving the prediction market's price for Ethereum reaching new highs in the specified period.