Elon Musk - richest man in the world at the end of the year?

From June 28 to July 8, 2024, several key events likely influenced the increase in the Kalshi prediction market regarding whether Elon Musk would be the wealthiest person in the world on December 31, 2024. Notably, Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate Musk's $56 billion compensation package, which had previously been struck down by the Delaware Chancery Court. The vote not only boosted investor confidence but also led to a significant rise in Tesla's stock price, increasing by nearly 10% over two days​​. This development underscored Musk's pivotal role in Tesla's future and likely contributed to a perception of increased personal wealth.

Additionally, SpaceX secured a major contract from NASA to develop a deorbit vehicle for the International Space Station, enhancing the company's long-term prospects and financial stability​​. The announcement followed closely on the heels of successful test flights and partnerships, bolstering confidence in SpaceX's valuation and future revenue streams. The combined impact of these events likely contributed to the increased market sentiment that Musk's wealth would continue to grow, driving the market price from $0.48 to $0.70​​.

Kalshi market price for SpaceX launch by mid-August shows increase

Between June 21 and July 2, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether SpaceX will launch the Starship again by August 14, 2024, saw an increase from $0.42 to $0.57. This price movement is likely influenced by several key events and announcements during this period. Firstly, Elon Musk stated that the next Starship launch is "probably 3 to 5 weeks away," with SpaceX actively preparing for this next flight by conducting necessary static fire tests and rolling the Super Heavy booster back to the pad for further testing​​. These concrete steps towards the next launch have likely boosted confidence among investors in the prediction market.

Additionally, significant progress has been made on the ground infrastructure at SpaceX's Starbase in Texas. The installation of a new steel plate water deluge system and the completion of substantial concrete work to prepare the launch site are critical milestones that indicate readiness for the upcoming launch. This work addresses issues from previous launches, aiming to prevent problems like the "rock tornado" observed during earlier tests​. These developments, combined with ongoing licensing efforts with the FAA, have likely contributed to the increased optimism reflected in the prediction market.