The increase in prediction market price from $0.43 to $0.52 between August 1 and August 13, 2024 for whether Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, likely reflects several key developments. Most notably, Harris officially secured the Democratic nomination on August 5, marking a significant milestone in her campaign. This formal recognition solidified her status as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer, which likely bolstered confidence among her supporters and speculators in the prediction markets. Additionally, the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate on August 6 may have also played a role. Walz is viewed as a strategic choice capable of appealing to both the progressive base and moderate voters, potentially improving Harris's electoral prospects.
Moreover, Harris's recent campaigning efforts, particularly in battleground states, have shown positive momentum. A new poll released on August 10 indicated that Harris had taken the lead in key "Blue Wall" states, which are crucial for winning the Electoral College. This polling data, combined with the ongoing support from the Democratic establishment and her focus on uniting the party, may have driven increased confidence in her chances of winning the election, thus contributing to the rise in her prediction market price.