Queer for Best Picture at the Oscars?

Between July 20 and July 29, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Queer will be nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards saw an increase from $0.34 to $0.48. This surge can be attributed to a series of favorable reviews and heightened buzz around the film following its premiere at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival. Critics praised "Queer" for its groundbreaking storytelling and powerful performances, highlighting its potential as a strong contender for the Oscars. The film's success at Sundance, coupled with its increasing visibility and positive critical reception, likely contributed to the increased confidence in its chances for a Best Picture nomination​.

Additionally, the film's strategic release on popular streaming platforms in July played a crucial role in expanding its audience and generating further acclaim. As more viewers and industry professionals watched "Queer," discussions about its Oscar potential intensified. This increased visibility and word-of-mouth praise bolstered market confidence in its likelihood of receiving a nomination, reflecting the general sentiment that the film was gaining significant traction in the awards circuit​.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson the next James Bond?

Between July 27 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market for Aaron Taylor-Johnson being announced as the next James Bond saw a significant increase from $0.37 to $0.65. This surge was largely driven by Pierce Brosnan's public endorsement of Taylor-Johnson for the role. Brosnan, a former Bond actor himself, praised Taylor-Johnson's talent and charisma, bolstering market confidence in his candidacy. Brosnan's comments, made on RTÉ Radio 1, lent substantial credibility to the rumors, given his firsthand experience working with Taylor-Johnson and his iconic status within the franchise​​.

Additionally, there were strong indications from industry insiders that Taylor-Johnson had already been offered the role, with reports suggesting he was expected to accept the offer imminently. This added another layer of speculation and anticipation among fans and market participants. The combination of Brosnan's endorsement and the behind-the-scenes movements within the franchise likely played crucial roles in the sharp rise of Taylor-Johnson's probability of becoming the next James Bond​.