Queer for Best Picture at the Oscars?

Between July 20 and July 29, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Queer will be nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards saw an increase from $0.34 to $0.48. This surge can be attributed to a series of favorable reviews and heightened buzz around the film following its premiere at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival. Critics praised "Queer" for its groundbreaking storytelling and powerful performances, highlighting its potential as a strong contender for the Oscars. The film's success at Sundance, coupled with its increasing visibility and positive critical reception, likely contributed to the increased confidence in its chances for a Best Picture nomination​.

Additionally, the film's strategic release on popular streaming platforms in July played a crucial role in expanding its audience and generating further acclaim. As more viewers and industry professionals watched "Queer," discussions about its Oscar potential intensified. This increased visibility and word-of-mouth praise bolstered market confidence in its likelihood of receiving a nomination, reflecting the general sentiment that the film was gaining significant traction in the awards circuit​.

Gladiator 2 for Oscar Best Picture nomination

The significant increase in the Kalshi prediction market for "If Gladiator 2 has been nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards" from $0.25 to $0.43 between July 1 and July 9, 2024, can likely be attributed to several pivotal developments. On July 1, the first official look at "Gladiator II" was released, showcasing a star-studded cast including Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, and Connie Nielsen. This unveiling generated considerable excitement and optimism about the film’s potential, given the pedigree of the actors involved and the return of Ridley Scott as the director. The images and details about the plot, which centers on Lucius, the son of Lucilla, transitioning from a peaceful life in Northern Africa to becoming a gladiator, were well-received and suggested a strong narrative that could resonate with audiences and critics alike​​.

Furthermore, discussions about the film’s potential for major award nominations gained momentum. Industry analysts and film enthusiasts began speculating on its chances at the Oscars, bolstered by the high-profile involvement of Ridley Scott and the ensemble cast. The narrative's depth, focusing on themes of survival, power struggles, and familial connections, along with the anticipation surrounding its November release, contributed to a more favorable outlook on its awards prospects. These factors combined to drive a notable increase in confidence within the prediction market regarding the film’s likelihood of securing a Best Picture nomination at the upcoming Academy Awards​​.