Between June 25 and June 26, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for total precipitation at Central Park, New York City being greater than 1.5 inches in June 2024 saw a notable decrease in the "Yes" price from $0.93 to $0.66. One significant factor contributing to this movement was a weather forecast update indicating a shift towards drier conditions for the remainder of June. Reports from The Weather Channel and AccuWeather highlighted a high-pressure system moving into the Northeastern United States, which typically suppresses precipitation activity. This updated forecast likely tempered expectations among investors on Kalshi, leading to a reduced probability assigned to the scenario of total precipitation exceeding 1.5 inches by the end of the month.
Furthermore, during this period, statistical models used by meteorological agencies adjusted their predictions, suggesting below-average rainfall for the region. This adjustment, covered by NOAA and local news outlets like NY1, provided empirical support for the revised forecast, influencing market sentiment on Kalshi. Investors responding to these updated models and forecasts recalibrated their expectations downward, reflecting a diminished likelihood of significant rainfall accumulation at Central Park by the close of June. As a result, the "Yes" price on the prediction market decreased to $0.66 as market participants adjusted their positions based on the latest weather data and forecasts.