From June 28 to July 8, 2024, several key events likely influenced the increase in the Kalshi prediction market regarding whether Elon Musk would be the wealthiest person in the world on December 31, 2024. Notably, Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate Musk's $56 billion compensation package, which had previously been struck down by the Delaware Chancery Court. The vote not only boosted investor confidence but also led to a significant rise in Tesla's stock price, increasing by nearly 10% over two days. This development underscored Musk's pivotal role in Tesla's future and likely contributed to a perception of increased personal wealth.
Additionally, SpaceX secured a major contract from NASA to develop a deorbit vehicle for the International Space Station, enhancing the company's long-term prospects and financial stability. The announcement followed closely on the heels of successful test flights and partnerships, bolstering confidence in SpaceX's valuation and future revenue streams. The combined impact of these events likely contributed to the increased market sentiment that Musk's wealth would continue to grow, driving the market price from $0.48 to $0.70.