Between June 21 and July 2, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether SpaceX will launch the Starship again by August 14, 2024, saw an increase from $0.42 to $0.57. This price movement is likely influenced by several key events and announcements during this period. Firstly, Elon Musk stated that the next Starship launch is "probably 3 to 5 weeks away," with SpaceX actively preparing for this next flight by conducting necessary static fire tests and rolling the Super Heavy booster back to the pad for further testing. These concrete steps towards the next launch have likely boosted confidence among investors in the prediction market.
Additionally, significant progress has been made on the ground infrastructure at SpaceX's Starbase in Texas. The installation of a new steel plate water deluge system and the completion of substantial concrete work to prepare the launch site are critical milestones that indicate readiness for the upcoming launch. This work addresses issues from previous launches, aiming to prevent problems like the "rock tornado" observed during earlier tests. These developments, combined with ongoing licensing efforts with the FAA, have likely contributed to the increased optimism reflected in the prediction market.