The Polymarket prediction for whether Josh Shapiro will get selected as the Democratic vice presidential nominee decreased from $0.73 to $0.60 between August 2 and August 5, 2024. This can be linked to several key events that likely influenced public perception and market confidence. One notable factor was the resurfacing of past scandals involving Shapiro's tenure as Pennsylvania governor. On August 2, allegations emerged that Shapiro had previously mishandled sexual harassment complaints against a top aide, which raised concerns about his leadership and integrity. This controversy gained traction, leading to criticism from women's advocacy groups, which likely diminished his appeal as a vice-presidential candidate.
Another significant event was the public debate over Shapiro's strong pro-Israel stance. As speculation about his vice-presidential prospects grew, so did the backlash from pro-Palestinian activists, who criticized his outspoken support for Israel. This controversy added a layer of complexity to his candidacy, potentially alienating some voters and stakeholders within the Democratic Party. Additionally, reports indicated that while Shapiro was actively involved in campaign events and fundraising, he remained non-committal and evasive when questioned about his vice-presidential aspirations, which may have created uncertainty about his viability as a candidate.