The Polymarket prediction for whether Kamala Harris wins the popular vote significantly increased from $0.48 to $0.67 between July 23 and August 5, 2024. This can be attributed to a series of strategic and impactful events. On July 23, Kamala Harris officially launched her presidential campaign with a rally in Wisconsin, where she emphasized themes of freedom, voting rights, and gun safety. Her powerful speeches resonated with many voters and helped to solidify her position as a strong contender against Donald Trump. This period also saw her gaining critical endorsements from key Democratic leaders and robust fundraising efforts, which bolstered her campaign's visibility and credibility.
Additionally, Harris’s performance in the polls contributed to the increased market confidence. During this time, several polls showed Harris either leading or closely trailing Trump in key battleground states. This positive polling data, combined with Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw from a scheduled debate with Harris and his subsequent derogatory remarks, may have further swayed public opinion in her favor. The combination of strategic campaigning, strong endorsements, effective fundraising, and favorable polling likely drove the significant rise in Harris's prediction market value.