The Kalshi prediction market for SpaceX having more than 120 launches in 2024 saw a significant price drop from $0.89 to $0.67 between July 11 and July 16, 2024. This decline can be attributed to a recent failure during a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch. On July 11, SpaceX attempted to launch 20 Starlink satellites, but the mission encountered a critical issue when the Falcon 9's second stage failed, leaving the satellites in a lower-than-intended orbit. This failure marked SpaceX's first in-flight mishap with the Falcon 9 since 2015, raising concerns about the reliability of their launch schedule for the remainder of the year.
Additionally, this failure might have implications for upcoming SpaceX missions, potentially causing delays and affecting their ambitious launch targets. The setback with the Starlink satellites, particularly those with direct-to-cell capabilities, not only impacts the specific mission but also raises broader concerns about the potential for future technical issues. This incident, combined with the need to investigate and rectify the cause of the failure, could disrupt SpaceX's aggressive launch schedule, contributing to the market's decreased confidence in SpaceX achieving more than 120 launches in 2024.