Between July 1 and July 9, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Netflix will have a layoff event involving at least 100 persons by December 31, 2024, saw a decrease from $0.68 to $0.62. A significant factor contributing to this shift was the announcement that Netflix planned a small-scale layoff, affecting only 15 people. The company is undergoing a restructuring of its film department following the recent change in leadership with Dan Lin replacing former studio chief Scott Stuber. This minor layoff, rather than a larger-scale event, likely reassured investors, resulting in the market's decreased confidence in a more extensive layoff happening within the year.
Additionally, Netflix's broader business context remains positive, which may have further influenced the market's outlook. Despite the minor layoffs, Netflix's stock performance has been strong, with shares up by 60% over the past six months. The company's focus on growth areas such as advertising and gaming, which were highlighted in their 2023 shareholder letter, suggests that Netflix is strategically positioning itself for future expansion. These factors combined likely led investors to reassess the likelihood of a significant layoff event, contributing to the observed decrease in the market price.