Queer for Best Picture at the Oscars?

Between July 20 and July 29, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Queer will be nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards saw an increase from $0.34 to $0.48. This surge can be attributed to a series of favorable reviews and heightened buzz around the film following its premiere at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival. Critics praised "Queer" for its groundbreaking storytelling and powerful performances, highlighting its potential as a strong contender for the Oscars. The film's success at Sundance, coupled with its increasing visibility and positive critical reception, likely contributed to the increased confidence in its chances for a Best Picture nomination​.

Additionally, the film's strategic release on popular streaming platforms in July played a crucial role in expanding its audience and generating further acclaim. As more viewers and industry professionals watched "Queer," discussions about its Oscar potential intensified. This increased visibility and word-of-mouth praise bolstered market confidence in its likelihood of receiving a nomination, reflecting the general sentiment that the film was gaining significant traction in the awards circuit​.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson the next James Bond?

Between July 27 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market for Aaron Taylor-Johnson being announced as the next James Bond saw a significant increase from $0.37 to $0.65. This surge was largely driven by Pierce Brosnan's public endorsement of Taylor-Johnson for the role. Brosnan, a former Bond actor himself, praised Taylor-Johnson's talent and charisma, bolstering market confidence in his candidacy. Brosnan's comments, made on RTÉ Radio 1, lent substantial credibility to the rumors, given his firsthand experience working with Taylor-Johnson and his iconic status within the franchise​​.

Additionally, there were strong indications from industry insiders that Taylor-Johnson had already been offered the role, with reports suggesting he was expected to accept the offer imminently. This added another layer of speculation and anticipation among fans and market participants. The combination of Brosnan's endorsement and the behind-the-scenes movements within the franchise likely played crucial roles in the sharp rise of Taylor-Johnson's probability of becoming the next James Bond​.

Chances of a Republican sweep decrease as Kamala Harris named new Democratic presidential nominee

Between July 21 and July 29, 2024, the Polymarket prediction market saw a notable decline in the probability of the Republican Party winning the Presidency and both houses of Congress, dropping from $0.41 to $0.33. A key event driving this shift was President Joe Biden's announcement on July 21 that he would not seek re-election, citing age-related concerns after a poor debate performance. This decision boosted Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic front-runner, potentially unifying Democratic support and affecting the Republican prospects​ .

Additionally, during this period, polling data revealed that Harris was performing competitively against former President Donald Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee. For instance, a Forbes/HarrisX poll from late July showed Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 51% to 49%, indicating a tight race that could influence market perceptions of the overall Republican chances. These developments likely contributed to the decreased confidence in a Republican sweep in the 2024 elections​.

Failure in SpaceX Falcon 9 launch impacts ambitious targets

The Kalshi prediction market for SpaceX having more than 120 launches in 2024 saw a significant price drop from $0.89 to $0.67 between July 11 and July 16, 2024. This decline can be attributed to a recent failure during a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch. On July 11, SpaceX attempted to launch 20 Starlink satellites, but the mission encountered a critical issue when the Falcon 9's second stage failed, leaving the satellites in a lower-than-intended orbit. This failure marked SpaceX's first in-flight mishap with the Falcon 9 since 2015, raising concerns about the reliability of their launch schedule for the remainder of the year​​.

Additionally, this failure might have implications for upcoming SpaceX missions, potentially causing delays and affecting their ambitious launch targets. The setback with the Starlink satellites, particularly those with direct-to-cell capabilities, not only impacts the specific mission but also raises broader concerns about the potential for future technical issues. This incident, combined with the need to investigate and rectify the cause of the failure, could disrupt SpaceX's aggressive launch schedule, contributing to the market's decreased confidence in SpaceX achieving more than 120 launches in 2024​​.

Confidence in China bagging the most gold medals in Olympics decreases

The decrease in the Polymarket prediction market price for China winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics from $0.34 to $0.22 can be attributed to several key developments. One significant factor is the reduction in the total number of gold medals available at Paris 2024 compared to the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which potentially impacts China's medal prospects. Additionally, changes in the athlete lineup have raised concerns about China's ability to dominate in certain events, despite the rigorous preparations undertaken by the national teams.

Another critical event is the heightened expectations and favorable odds for Team USA. Betting markets overwhelmingly favor the United States to win the most gold medals, with an implied probability of 89.5% compared to China's 20%. This is compounded by recent doping scandals affecting Chinese athletes, notably in swimming, which have cast a shadow over China's preparations and could impact their performance in the pool—a significant contributor to their medal tally. These factors collectively contribute to the market's reduced confidence in China outpacing other nations in the gold medal count.

Netflix mass layoff by the end of the year

Between July 1 and July 9, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether Netflix will have a layoff event involving at least 100 persons by December 31, 2024, saw a decrease from $0.68 to $0.62. A significant factor contributing to this shift was the announcement that Netflix planned a small-scale layoff, affecting only 15 people. The company is undergoing a restructuring of its film department following the recent change in leadership with Dan Lin replacing former studio chief Scott Stuber. This minor layoff, rather than a larger-scale event, likely reassured investors, resulting in the market's decreased confidence in a more extensive layoff happening within the year​​.

Additionally, Netflix's broader business context remains positive, which may have further influenced the market's outlook. Despite the minor layoffs, Netflix's stock performance has been strong, with shares up by 60% over the past six months. The company's focus on growth areas such as advertising and gaming, which were highlighted in their 2023 shareholder letter, suggests that Netflix is strategically positioning itself for future expansion. These factors combined likely led investors to reassess the likelihood of a significant layoff event, contributing to the observed decrease in the market price.​

Gladiator 2 for Oscar Best Picture nomination

The significant increase in the Kalshi prediction market for "If Gladiator 2 has been nominated for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards" from $0.25 to $0.43 between July 1 and July 9, 2024, can likely be attributed to several pivotal developments. On July 1, the first official look at "Gladiator II" was released, showcasing a star-studded cast including Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, and Connie Nielsen. This unveiling generated considerable excitement and optimism about the film’s potential, given the pedigree of the actors involved and the return of Ridley Scott as the director. The images and details about the plot, which centers on Lucius, the son of Lucilla, transitioning from a peaceful life in Northern Africa to becoming a gladiator, were well-received and suggested a strong narrative that could resonate with audiences and critics alike​​.

Furthermore, discussions about the film’s potential for major award nominations gained momentum. Industry analysts and film enthusiasts began speculating on its chances at the Oscars, bolstered by the high-profile involvement of Ridley Scott and the ensemble cast. The narrative's depth, focusing on themes of survival, power struggles, and familial connections, along with the anticipation surrounding its November release, contributed to a more favorable outlook on its awards prospects. These factors combined to drive a notable increase in confidence within the prediction market regarding the film’s likelihood of securing a Best Picture nomination at the upcoming Academy Awards​​.

Elon Musk - richest man in the world at the end of the year?

From June 28 to July 8, 2024, several key events likely influenced the increase in the Kalshi prediction market regarding whether Elon Musk would be the wealthiest person in the world on December 31, 2024. Notably, Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate Musk's $56 billion compensation package, which had previously been struck down by the Delaware Chancery Court. The vote not only boosted investor confidence but also led to a significant rise in Tesla's stock price, increasing by nearly 10% over two days​​. This development underscored Musk's pivotal role in Tesla's future and likely contributed to a perception of increased personal wealth.

Additionally, SpaceX secured a major contract from NASA to develop a deorbit vehicle for the International Space Station, enhancing the company's long-term prospects and financial stability​​. The announcement followed closely on the heels of successful test flights and partnerships, bolstering confidence in SpaceX's valuation and future revenue streams. The combined impact of these events likely contributed to the increased market sentiment that Musk's wealth would continue to grow, driving the market price from $0.48 to $0.70​​.

Profit opportunity in election markets on Polymarket

When you're participating in election markets it's really important to read the full rules that define a market before buying any contracts. I was reminded of that while evaluating Kalshi's market for "How many Trump-Biden debates this year?" The market for "1 debate" is currently at $0.28 for yes, $0.77 for no. That seems like an easy 'yes' bet. They've had 1 already, Biden is 50/50 to not even remain on the ticket, and if he does remain on it, an argument can be made that additional debates aren't really in either candidate's best interest (Biden because he might be embarrassed again, Trump because he wants people to remember Biden's first debate against him). Then I ready the rules. It turns out that this market is actually on total number of presidential debates between the Republican candidate and Democratic candidate. No mention of Trump or Biden specifically. So it's lot easier to see a scenario where Biden gets replaced on the ticket, and Trump debates Biden's replacement. While some people may argue that at that point, Biden is no longer the democratic candidate, and therefore the first debate shouldn't count towards the total, I assume that the market will be resolved with that debate counting, greatly increasing the chance of there being at least two debates.

Interactive Brokers introduces ForecastTrader

Next week, Interactive Brokers will go live with ForecastTrader, which will allow account holders to trade forecast and event contracts, similar to those offered on prediction markets like Kalshi. This is the first time that a mainstream company has offered most of these contracts, and will be a good barometer of what to expect going forward. If the Interactive Brokers contracts gain much traction, we can expect to see other retail brokers following suit.

Polymarket breaks the $100m threshold in June

In June, Polymarket became the first prediction market to exceed $100m of trading volume in a calendar month. Not only that, but on the day of the US Presidential debate, a massive $8m of contracts were traded. I would imagine that this is just a taste of things to come, with even higher trading volume likely as the election approaches.

Kalshi market price for SpaceX launch by mid-August shows increase

Between June 21 and July 2, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for whether SpaceX will launch the Starship again by August 14, 2024, saw an increase from $0.42 to $0.57. This price movement is likely influenced by several key events and announcements during this period. Firstly, Elon Musk stated that the next Starship launch is "probably 3 to 5 weeks away," with SpaceX actively preparing for this next flight by conducting necessary static fire tests and rolling the Super Heavy booster back to the pad for further testing​​. These concrete steps towards the next launch have likely boosted confidence among investors in the prediction market.

Additionally, significant progress has been made on the ground infrastructure at SpaceX's Starbase in Texas. The installation of a new steel plate water deluge system and the completion of substantial concrete work to prepare the launch site are critical milestones that indicate readiness for the upcoming launch. This work addresses issues from previous launches, aiming to prevent problems like the "rock tornado" observed during earlier tests​. These developments, combined with ongoing licensing efforts with the FAA, have likely contributed to the increased optimism reflected in the prediction market.

Likelihood of CPI 12 month change in the 2% range increases as related metrics drop

Between June 12 and June 26, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflecting a 12-month percent change of 2.0 to 2.9% in 2024 saw an increase from $0.39 to $0.54. This price movement was likely driven by several key economic reports and data releases during this period. On June 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the CPI for May showed a significant deceleration in inflation, with the overall CPI rising just 0.2% for the month and 3.3% over the past year. This lower-than-expected inflation rate was bolstered by falling energy prices, which dropped by 2.0% in May, including a notable 3.6% decrease in gasoline prices​​.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision on June 14 to hold interest rates steady provided further confidence that inflation was being brought under control without the need for immediate additional rate hikes. This pause in rate increases, coupled with optimistic projections about the inflation trajectory, likely contributed to the market's reassessment of the probability that CPI would fall within the 2.0 to 2.9% range by the end of 2024. The combination of these economic indicators pointed to a stabilizing inflation environment, which in turn boosted investor confidence in the likelihood of the CPI staying within the targeted range​.

Pessimism about new Gracie Abrams album leads to drop in chances of a Top 20 song

The drop in the Kalshi prediction market price for whether Gracie Abrams will have a Top 20 song on the Billboard Hot 100 by December 28, 2024, from $0.56 to $0.41 between July 1 and July 2, 2024, can likely be attributed to recent developments surrounding her new album "The Secret of Us." Despite the album's initial strong performance, debuting at number one on the Billboard Top Album Sales Chart and number two on the Billboard 200, the subsequent market reaction may reflect investor skepticism about the album's longevity and the potential for its tracks to sustain high positions on the singles chart over the long term. The initial buzz might not have translated into lasting impact, as investors re-evaluated the likelihood of one of her songs maintaining or gaining traction in the competitive music landscape​.

Additionally, the collaboration with Taylor Swift on the track "Us," while a significant highlight of the album, might not have provided the expected boost to Abrams' visibility and chart performance as anticipated. Taylor Swift's dominance in the charts with her own album, "The Tortured Poets Department," which continues to hold the number one position in overall Billboard 200 for ten consecutive weeks, could have overshadowed Abrams' release. Investors might have perceived that Swift's overwhelming presence in the market reduces the chances of a significant breakout single from Abrams, leading to the decreased confidence reflected in the prediction market​.