Large Increase Since April in Kalshi Market for 2024 to be Hottest Year on Record

The increase in the Kalshi prediction market price from $0.46 to $0.75 for 2024 being the hottest year on record can be attributed to several significant climate-related events during this period. Notably, April 2024 was reported as the hottest April on record, marking the eleventh consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. This pattern of unprecedented warmth is linked to both the residual effects of the El Niño phenomenon and the ongoing impact of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Scientists from the Copernicus Climate Change Service have indicated that while El Niño conditions have started to diminish, the overall global warming trend continues to push temperatures higher. The combination of these factors has likely contributed to the heightened market confidence that 2024 will set a new temperature record. Furthermore, a series of extreme weather events have underscored the severity of the current climate situation. For example, multiple heatwaves across Asia, particularly in countries like Bangladesh, South Korea, and India, have resulted in severe health and environmental impacts, including school closures and significant mortality rates. Additionally, there have been numerous billion-dollar weather disasters globally, such as devastating floods in Kenya and Pakistan, which have exacerbated the overall perception of escalating climate change impacts. These events not only highlight the immediate consequences of rising temperatures but also reinforce the likelihood of 2024 becoming the hottest year on record, driving the prediction market's price increase.