Argentina to dollarize its economy

The increase in the Kalshi prediction market from $0.21 to $0.31 for the likelihood of Argentina dollarizing its economy by December 31, 2025, likely reflects heightened economic concerns following several key developments in Argentina. Most notably, the country's inflation rate surged to an alarming 12.4% in August 2024, the highest monthly rate in over three decades. This spike followed a major devaluation of the Argentine peso, exacerbating economic instability and making alternatives like dollarization appear more appealing to investors and the public alike​.

Additionally, political developments likely played a significant role in this shift. Javier Milei, a prominent libertarian candidate who supports dollarization, has gained traction as Argentina's economic challenges deepen. Milei's proposals to abolish the central bank and fully adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina's currency are being seen as increasingly viable solutions to the country's persistent inflation and monetary mismanagement​. These economic and political dynamics combined to drive the market's reassessment of the likelihood of dollarization.

Kamala Harris likelihood to win presidential election

The increase in prediction market price from $0.43 to $0.52 between August 1 and August 13, 2024 for whether Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, likely reflects several key developments. Most notably, Harris officially secured the Democratic nomination on August 5, marking a significant milestone in her campaign. This formal recognition solidified her status as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer, which likely bolstered confidence among her supporters and speculators in the prediction markets. Additionally, the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate on August 6 may have also played a role. Walz is viewed as a strategic choice capable of appealing to both the progressive base and moderate voters, potentially improving Harris's electoral prospects.

Moreover, Harris's recent campaigning efforts, particularly in battleground states, have shown positive momentum. A new poll released on August 10 indicated that Harris had taken the lead in key "Blue Wall" states, which are crucial for winning the Electoral College. This polling data, combined with the ongoing support from the Democratic establishment and her focus on uniting the party, may have driven increased confidence in her chances of winning the election, thus contributing to the rise in her prediction market price.

Josh Shapiro - Democratic VP Nominee

The Polymarket prediction for whether Josh Shapiro will get selected as the Democratic vice presidential nominee decreased from $0.73 to $0.60 between August 2 and August 5, 2024. This can be linked to several key events that likely influenced public perception and market confidence. One notable factor was the resurfacing of past scandals involving Shapiro's tenure as Pennsylvania governor. On August 2, allegations emerged that Shapiro had previously mishandled sexual harassment complaints against a top aide, which raised concerns about his leadership and integrity. This controversy gained traction, leading to criticism from women's advocacy groups, which likely diminished his appeal as a vice-presidential candidate​​.

Another significant event was the public debate over Shapiro's strong pro-Israel stance. As speculation about his vice-presidential prospects grew, so did the backlash from pro-Palestinian activists, who criticized his outspoken support for Israel. This controversy added a layer of complexity to his candidacy, potentially alienating some voters and stakeholders within the Democratic Party. Additionally, reports indicated that while Shapiro was actively involved in campaign events and fundraising, he remained non-committal and evasive when questioned about his vice-presidential aspirations, which may have created uncertainty about his viability as a candidate​.

Winner of the popular vote for US elections in November

The Polymarket prediction for whether Kamala Harris wins the popular vote significantly increased from $0.48 to $0.67 between July 23 and August 5, 2024. This can be attributed to a series of strategic and impactful events. On July 23, Kamala Harris officially launched her presidential campaign with a rally in Wisconsin, where she emphasized themes of freedom, voting rights, and gun safety. Her powerful speeches resonated with many voters and helped to solidify her position as a strong contender against Donald Trump. This period also saw her gaining critical endorsements from key Democratic leaders and robust fundraising efforts, which bolstered her campaign's visibility and credibility​​.

Additionally, Harris’s performance in the polls contributed to the increased market confidence. During this time, several polls showed Harris either leading or closely trailing Trump in key battleground states. This positive polling data, combined with Trump’s controversial decision to withdraw from a scheduled debate with Harris and his subsequent derogatory remarks, may have further swayed public opinion in her favor. The combination of strategic campaigning, strong endorsements, effective fundraising, and favorable polling likely drove the significant rise in Harris's prediction market value​​.