Between June 24 and June 25, 2024, the Kalshi prediction market for US gasoline prices rising above $3.45 on June 30, 2024 saw a notable surge in the "Yes" price, rising from $0.70 to $0.91. One primary catalyst for this movement was the decision by OPEC+ to maintain its current oil production levels despite calls for an increase. This decision, extensively covered by Reuters and other major news outlets, heightened concerns about global oil supply adequacy amidst recovering demand, thereby pushing up crude oil prices. Given that gasoline prices closely track crude oil prices, investors reacted by anticipating a potential continuation of this trend, which could lead to higher pump prices by the end of June.
Furthermore, during this period, escalating geopolitical tensions in a major oil-producing region also played a significant role. Reports from Bloomberg and CNBC detailed heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil tankers. Such geopolitical uncertainties typically lead to market volatility and concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies, thereby exerting upward pressure on oil prices and, subsequently, on gasoline prices in the US. These developments likely prompted investors on Kalshi to adjust their expectations upwards, driving the "Yes" price to $0.91 as they considered the potential impact of these geopolitical factors on gasoline prices surpassing $3.45 by the designated date.